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Last update Wed 14 Oct 17:20:32 CEST 2020

FORECASTS SHOWING DASHED LINES AND "NA" IN THEIR ESTIMATE ARE NOT RELIABLE SO FAR.

Since April 3rd, a 5 day running mean is applied to all data.

Since April 9th, with Davide Proment we implemented the same exercise for England regions on his GitHub page.

Methodology note

* Forecasts are estimated with Gompertz functions computed via the nls.lm R function. Ribbons show the 95% confidence interval computed with the confint2 R function.
*

Since April 3rd, a 5 day running mean is applied to all data

The non-linear model to forecast the evolution is reliable only after one third of its path (Winsor, PNAS, 1932). Hence errors are likely larger than currently estimated in situation where the outbreak is just started.

Saturation values are the alpha parameter of the Gompertz fit. Errors are estimated using the half of the distance between the 2.5% and the 97.5% percentiles. When forecasts error is larger than half of the forecast value, i.e. the forecast is completely unreliable, NA is shown.

Forecasts are updated at least twice a day (18.30 and 05:30).

Some inconsistencies in Italian prediction may arise from slight data differences between the Civil Protection and the Johns Hopkins archives.

The code can be found on my GitHub repository, althought it is really badly written.

Since April 3rd, a 5 day running mean is applied to all data

The non-linear model to forecast the evolution is reliable only after one third of its path (Winsor, PNAS, 1932). Hence errors are likely larger than currently estimated in situation where the outbreak is just started.

Saturation values are the alpha parameter of the Gompertz fit. Errors are estimated using the half of the distance between the 2.5% and the 97.5% percentiles. When forecasts error is larger than half of the forecast value, i.e. the forecast is completely unreliable, NA is shown.

Forecasts are updated at least twice a day (18.30 and 05:30).

Some inconsistencies in Italian prediction may arise from slight data differences between the Civil Protection and the Johns Hopkins archives.

The code can be found on my GitHub repository, althought it is really badly written.

P. Davini (CNR-ISAC), March 2020